Re: What happened to the Zip chip?!?!

[spec@vax2.concordia.ca (Mitchell Spector)]

In article supertimer@aol.com (Supertimer) writes...

>spec@vax2.concordia.ca (Mitchell Spector) wrote:
>
>>The installed base of
>>C64 machines was in the tens of millions, probably even more!
>(snip...)
>>As it stands today, I would say there
>>are probably only several dozen people making up the Apple
>>IIgs market. For proof of that, look at the number of sales
>>a program like Spectrum or SuperConvert makes worldwide. Or
>>look at the total number of subscribers to the two remaining
>>printed publications available.
>
>While the C64 is unit and of course has more users, I think you
>are underestimating the A2 market a bit.  Gareth Jones has
>already said he knows the number (several dozen) of SuperConvert
>users you mention just in British Columbia and that's not the focal
>point of the GS market.

    I'm not saying the Apple II market has vanished completely,
but if you look at today's computer industry (with the PC clone
a vast standard, and the Mac just struggling to survive in this
sea of Intel clones) the Apple II is dead. Even if you look at
the Apple II as a niche market in comparison to the Amiga, C64,
Atari ST, and other no longer mainstream machines, it is almost
dead there too.

    There are undoubtedly several thousand people still using
Apple II's today, but only a small fraction of those people
are real die-hard users (those who refuse to even look at new
technologies today). An even smaller number are those willing
to invest money to upgrade and maintain their II's. There are 
people buying Apple II hardware and software, but I think
it is could be better described as a large pocket of users 
than a full-fledged "market".

>Alltech has a triple digit waiting list on the Zip GS accelerator.

    Triple digit can mean just over 100 people. Also, I doubt
that list is updated frequently, so someone who was interested
in a Zip GS board a year or two ago, may no longer be so. Why
do you think REMcorp discontinued the Zip GS? It is because it
would have cost more to produce than they would have gotten back 
in total sales. They might have just broken even, if lucky.

>I just don't buy it...the A2 market is here.
>It may be smaller than it used to be, but it still exists.

    Well there are only 200 people subscribing to Juiced.GS,
that figure would confirm my "several dozen people" making
up the Apple IIgs market (the activate buying half anyway).
If you produce a new piece of hardware or software, you do
risk losing money with such a small market size, that is
why companies like CMD are not interested in penetrating
the Apple II "market", there is little chance of making a
sizable profit and a great chance of actually losing money.

    There is some market there, your right, but you just
need someone who is not afraid to take a gamble and has lots
of faith and love invested in the machine. That is why Alltech
and Seven Hills are still around selling to the II market.

>In email, you said you ceased buying new things for the GS. It
>may be that you are projecting your own actions on what you
>think others are doing.  ;-)

    Well part of the reason is there is little left to add
to my GS that hasn't already been added. The only thing I
wouldn't mind finding is a Video Overlay Card, and perhaps
an external CD-ROM for the fun of it.

    I haven't lost interest in adding things to my Apple II
collection though, I still actively keep a look out for odd
parts at thrift shops, used computer stores and garage sales
where items are very inexpensive.

>By the way, I read that the total number of A2s sold, excluding
>clones, is about 11 million.  This is counting the II and II+ units.
>C64 and C128 together sold at least three times that!

    Even so, that is still only a fraction of the number of
Commodore 64 machines, and don't forget, there are only one
million Apple IIgs's in that figure.

>I wonder if Apple saw things differently what would have happened.
>We could use a 90s version of the Commodore 64.  How much
>do you think it costs to build an Apple IIGS?  I bet Apple can turn
>in a profit even at $80 a unit.  This will make $150 for an Apple
>IIGS system.  If Apple bundles software and enough memory,
>we could have a winner...

    I'm certain with today's advancements you could squeeze an
entire Apple IIgs onto something no bigger than the Apple IIe
card. Unfortunately Apple has no interesting in doing anything
more with the machine, they don't want anything floating around
that looks and feels like a Macintosh.

Mitchell Spector
spec@vax2.concordia.ca