Charlie Springer wrote:
On Mon, 16 Apr 2007 20:53:37 -0700, Michael J. Mahon wrote (in article <Bq2dnRZ_mMJK2bnbnZ2dnUVZ_gKdnZ2d@comcast.com>):Or they could have had their heyday a billion years ago, or will a billion years hence. Drake's equation covers the ground pretty well.Well, if you like long strings of wild guesses multiplied together, I have a system for winning at roulette for sale.
I just like the fact that it neatly identifies the factors that need to be known. It summarizes virtually all of the "objections" to communication with exterrestrial intelligence in less than a page, showing exactly what we do and don't know. The fact that we can only guess at some of the factors now is not really a problem--a few of them are in the process of going from guesses to estimates as we speak. Some will be harder to unravel, but they serve to frame the uncertainties and how to approach them. I think that one of the reasons I like Drake's equation is that I was very interested in it as a student when I read the original paper in the Proceedings of the IRE. -michael NadaNet networking for Apple II computers! Home page: http://members.aol.com/MJMahon/ "The wastebasket is our most important design tool--and it's seriously underused."