Re: How will the Apple II survive?

[mjmahon@aol.com (Michael J. Mahon)]

Jeff Thomas wrote:

>I pondered upon this question lately, how long will the Apple II
>survive?
>
>Three years ago, my Apple IIe computer died. The fault lay with the
>motherboard, I
>had known of one tradesperson, who could fix it, but he closed shop the
>year before, due to trouble sourcing parts and rising costs for the
>older computers, he specialised in servicing like mines. Nobody else
>knew what, it was nor how to fix it. I was able to get a replacement
>computer second-hand, but I can foresee that in possibly 10-years time
>that might be impossible. My only insurance against this is to purchase
>several machines. How would the ordinary person fair?

What is going on is a normal process as technology ages.

The Apple II will eventually only be maintainable by interested
electronic hobbyists, not unlike the person who created it.

This is the population upon which the initial success of the
Apple II was built, and will be its final destination.

Although the Apple II was widely sold as the first "appliance"
personal computer for the masses, its fundamental strength
was its expandability, which ensured a long and versatile life.

As "expertise for hire" becomes non-existant, older technology
becomes impractical for the non-technical to use.  This process
is now well under way for the Apple II.

Whether or not new, younger hobbyists will be recruited in
sufficient numbers to maintain some continuity depends on the
appeal of the machine and its nostalgia to the younger generation.
The large number of "retro" games for the platform may help in
kindling interest, but unless it is accompanied by learning about
older digital electronics, the remaining real Apple II machines will
eventually be reduced to non-functioning museum pieces.

Of course, the "game" crowd can always enjoy emulators, and
in fact, seem to be the primary push for emulation.  But this
crowd will never know the wide range of peripheral card options
or the joy and ease of extending the real machine.

Think about the Model T.  It was the first mass-market automobile
success.  A very large number of them were made and used by a
huge population of people who, for the first time, felt they could
afford and operate a car without being able to build it themselves.

There were enough of them that some still exist, and parts can
not only be found, but are still _made_ for the hobbyist market.
But all the drivable Model Ts today are being maintained by
people who _could_ build one themselves!

This is the inevitable future for the Apple II and all old technology.
If it survives at all, it will do so in the hands of knowledgeable
hobbyists.

-michael

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