Re: Apple the Strategy For next 10 years

[xyzzy@ponyexpress.net (Edward Franks)]

RUBYWAND has a great posting...
> 
[Snip]
>      Incredibly, not one major computer maker seems to have understood
> what so many users-- of Apple II's, of Commodore 64's, ...-- knew as a
> matter of common sense: the home computing market is the center of power.
> Dominate the home market with its millions of users and the other markets
> must, eventually, be yours as well.

	Demonstratably not true.  The IBM PC dominated the business 
market and from there moved into the home market.  The place to start 
is with the _business_ market.  One of the reasons the "average" 
computer buyer uses to justify the purchase of a particular type of 
micro is that the micro must run the same software as the micro they 
use at work.  Most (by most I mean the non-hobbyist, non-enthusiast) 
people's exposure to micros come from the machines they use at work.

	Also, please consider this idea, most businesses have a micro at 
every desk, but not every home has a single PC in it.  Remember too, 
it is businesses that have the money to move to new platforms, en-
masse.
	How many "average" people will buy new computers like they do 
new cars?  Most of the "average" people I know want to buy a computer 
and have it be useful for them for the next five to ten years.
	It is businesses that are on a three to five year replacement 
cycle.  This is where new micros (and software) can slip in easier.

	I think the home market conquers the world strategy was only 
workable once.  Apple blew their chance and now any world conquering 
strategy will have to displace the IBM PC in its stronghold:  the 
business arena.

[Snip]
>      By 1987 some of us began to regret the colossal blunders of the
> competition, including, even, IBM. The PC had, so to speak, "escaped
> cultivation". In the hands of low-profit clone makers, it ceased to be
> merely a business machine with a few home users. Like some strange weed,
> PC was mutating and spreading rapidly into the home market. IBM had
> created the ultimate computer virus: basically, an Intel-based 'Apple II'
> which neither it nor any other single manufacturer could control.

	I *like* this idea!
	Too bad Apple IIs couldn't have '"escaped cultivation"'.  They 
might have survived Apple's marketing blunders better.  ('The NEW 
Compaq Apple ][+ Pro/GS running at 250MHz with 128MB RAM and 2 5.0GB 
Hard drives!' 'Will IBM ever move out of it's 4.77 percent niche?')
	The clone makers allowed the IBM PC market to survive IBM's 
marketing blunders (anyone remember the PS/2s?) by making the machines 
people wanted (or were willing to pay for <grin>).

> 
>      Once the clone PC propagated into the massive home user market, it
> became a creature of this market responding with AdLib Sound, VGA
> graphics, low-cost mass storage, etc., AND mushrooming support from major
> suppliers of entertainment software. PC is a textbook case of free-market
> capitalism in action.

	Dead on.  The IBM PC was a business machine first and had to 
improve in order to enter the home market.  Too bad Apple was willing 
to improve the Apple IIs more to allow the IIs to enter the business 
market.

[Snip]
 
>      Any sober assessment of Apple's prospects must begin with the
> observation that the company's history does not lead one to anticipate
> innovative, daring strategems. So, perhaps, we should expect Apple and
> Mac-- kicking, screaming, and wailing-- to slide down 'the big tube'
> together.

	Right on!  Even the Mac was a pirate project in AppleLand.  The 
irony to me is that Apple's current survival depends on a project most 
wanted to kill.
 
>      Still, survival is an excellent motivator. Apple, Inc. may, yet,
> adopt a II-based strategy and battle PC for the home market. It's late in
> the game; but, when you're dead anyway, you might as well make interesting
> moves.

	Excellent posting.  I enjoy reading and thinking about what you 
said, even when I didn't agree with everything.

Thanks,

Edward

-- 

Edward Franks
efranks@msn.com
xyzzy@ponyexpress.net

-==(UDIC)==- Fortran Dragon

Microsoft Certified Product Specialist: Windows 3.1

"Ain't I a stinker?" - Bugs Bunny