Re: Apple II VGA video card and the IIgs

["Michael J. Mahon" <mjmahon@aol.com>]

Henry wrote:
> Hey guys.
>
> As far as a market size goes, I would say the Apple II market is about 5000 
> people but only about 10-15% of them actively use their Apple II's.  Of 
> those 500-600 people most actively shop on eBay and about 10% of them have 
> purchased items from our online Store.  We have over 50 unique customers and 
> the numbers have been growing at a fair rate since advertising items on 
> eBay.  We'll probably have over 150 by years end.

Interesting information and analysis--thanks for letting us know.

> Is there money to be made in Apple II items?  Sure, but the dollar to work 
> ratio is quote low.  Most of the profits have been reinvested in our 
> Website.  I do like having the excuse to be able to buy new tools though. 
> ;-)
>
> Price is also relative for a product.  I know people who can't justify to 
> spend $35 for a No-Slot Clock and others that buy a BlueDisk or MicroDrive 
> for every system they own.  Our single largest sale has been over $500 and 
> our best month which was last month was about $1600 in sales.  Our average 
> sale is about $70.  As we add new products the sales should continue to 
> grow.

Most businesses notice a distinct saturation effect, where a new product
makes a big splash, then fades as all the interested buyers acquire it.
As a result, to be successful, they must constantly create new products
that kindle new interest in buying.

Hewlett-Packard had a very strong orientation toward new product
creation, and therefore toward R&D.  It was enshrined in the HP
culture in the "vintage chart", that plotted revenue by year as
stacked bars, with each element of the stack being revenue
attributable to products with a given year of introduction.

It was always clear that the majority of the revenue of the company
came from products introduced less than three years prior, even though
revenue from older products seldom dropped to zero.

It would be good to understand this effect for your products and market.

> So there's a little market info, or at least some basic numbers that I work 
> with.  I still can't tell if the market is growing or shrinking, but I do 
> receive emails from people who are getting back in to Apple II's asking 
> advice, questions and buying things.  To me at least it 'feels' like it's 
> growing, at least a little.  I know the amount of auctions on eBay for Apple 
> II items is always on the rise.  I hope it's people only cleaning out their 
> closets and not throwing in the towel.

I've noticed some of them who seem to be getting out of the Apple II
as an area of interest.  They first showed up on the eBay scene a couple
of years ago as "high rollers", and now, for the last few months, appear
to be sellin everything off.  Maybe they are just keeping the best and
disposing of the rest, but it seems like a lot of "premium" items are
being resold.

Of course, the seasonality argues for a lot of "closet cleaning" too.

To balance that, I also see evidence of new buyers and new enthusiasm.
Whether it is from users (who would be interested in new products with
good utility) or collectors (who are interested only in "vintage"
products--or their *boxes* ;-), it's hard to tell without observing
their buying pattern.

It would be very interesting to do a several-year longitudinal study of
the population and activity (levels, buy/sell) of Apple-related eBay
folks.  I realize that the ease of switching user IDs could confound
this, but I expect that most members fly the same flag for a long time.

Such a study would show patterns of activity that could be characterized
as sustained/sporadic, buying/selling, bargain hunting/top dollar, mean
"lifetime" of an Apple buyer/seller, mean rate of increase/decrease of
Apple buyers/sellers, etc.  This could lead to a better understanding
of the Apple II market.  The only missing "calibration" factor is what
percentage of the Apple II market actually participates in eBay (and
Henry may be able to estimate that, selling both on and off eBay).

-michael

Music synthesis for 8-bit Apple II's!
Home page:  http://members.aol.com/MJMahon/

"The wastebasket is our most important design
tool--and it is seriously underused."